Yesterday the Bank of England held the base rate at 3.75% — the ninth month in a row it has stayed there.

If your fixed rate ends in the next few months, you may have seen that headline and thought: good, nothing’s changed, I’ll leave it a bit longer and see if rates improve.

It’s a completely understandable reaction. It might also be an expensive one. Here’s why.

The vote tells a different story to the headline

The decision wasn’t unanimous. Three of the nine committee members voted to increase the rate to 4%.

Inflation is the reason. It rose to 3.1% in August, up from 2.9% in July, and the Bank expects it to climb further over the coming quarters, largely down to energy prices and the continuing conflict in the Middle East.

The Governor was fairly direct about where that leads: the longer the volatility lasts, the more likely it is that the Bank will need to raise rates to bring inflation back to target.

So “held” doesn’t mean “settled”. It means “not yet”.

Fixed rates aren’t waiting around

Here’s the part that catches people out. Your fixed rate isn’t set by the base rate at all. It’s priced off swap rates — what the market expects borrowing to cost over the next two or five years.

Those expectations have moved sharply. The two-year swap rate has risen from 3.33% in late February to above 4.70% by mid-September. NatWest, Santander, HSBC, Lloyds, TSB and Nationwide have all raised their fixed rates twice this month alone.

The average two-year fixed has gone from 4.84% in March to 5.73% now — roughly £131 a month more on a £250,000 mortgage over 25 years. That’s around £1,570 a year, for waiting.

Nobody can tell you what happens next. But if you’re holding out for rates to fall, it’s worth knowing markets are currently pricing in the opposite.

The other cost of waiting

If your deal ends and nothing is in place, you don’t get moved onto another decent rate. You go onto your lender’s Standard Variable Rate — typically one of the most expensive rates they offer, and one they can change whenever they like.

A couple of months on SVR while you “think about it” can wipe out any saving you were hoping to wait for.

This is exactly what our Remortgage Promise is for

You shouldn’t have to gamble on which way rates go. Our Remortgage Promise means you don’t have to:

  • A completely free initial consultation. It costs nothing to have a chat and see how we can help.
  • We’ll get you the best rate available today, even if that’s with your current lender.
  • We handle the whole process — paperwork, application, the lot.
  • And we keep tracking rates. If a better deal comes along before your current one ends, we’ll switch you to it at no extra cost.

That last point is the important one right now. Locking in today sets your worst-case scenario. If rates rise further, you’re protected. If they fall, you still get the benefit.

Waiting does the opposite. Waiting means your worst case is whatever the market decides to do between now and your renewal date.

What to do this week

  1. Find your end date. It’s on your latest mortgage statement or in your lender’s app.
  2. If it’s within six months, get in touch. That’s the window — there’s no advantage to leaving it later.
  3. Don’t just accept your lender’s renewal letter. It’s convenient, but convenient and cheapest aren’t always the same thing. More on that in Product Transfer or Remortgage?

Landlords, the same applies with knobs on — buy to let pricing moves quickly with swap rates, and affordability calculations tighten as rates rise.

Fifteen minutes, no obligation

If your deal ends before spring, let’s have a proper look while the six-month window is open.

Worst case, you find out you’re already in good shape. Best case, we lock something in today and you can stop thinking about it.

Call us on 01702 209929, message us on WhatsApp, or book an appointment online.

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage. Rates and figures correct at time of writing, 18 September 2026. Rate switching before completion is subject to lender criteria and product availability.

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